Forecast Scenario · Jun–Dec 2026

Gross Margin — Improvement Sensitivity

Dial overall forecast accuracy, then tune realization and confidence on each initiative.

How to read the controls

Realization (colored slider)

The share of an initiative's planned savings you expect to actually capture — your single best estimate. It moves the center of the forecast (the green line) up or down. 100% = full plan; 80% = you expect four-fifths of the planned savings.

Confidence interval (± amber slider)

The range of plausible outcomes around that estimate — how sure you are. It sets the width of the shaded band and does not move the center. ±15% means the result is likely within 15% above or below the expected case.

Forecast accuracy (master dial)

A single realization factor applied to all 19 initiatives at once — a quick top-line stress test before fine-tuning individual rows.

Formula: effective = base savings × forecast accuracy × realization | low / high = effective × (1 − confidence). Realization shifts the line; confidence opens a band around it.

FY26 Gross Margin (with improvements)

Baseline (no improvements):

Forecast accuracy

Share of planned savings that actually lands. Scales every initiative at once.

50% · conservative100% · plan110%

Run-rate savings / mo (Dec)

Annualized run-rate

Exit GM% (Dec-26)

Monthly gross margin path

Baseline Expected Confidence band

Initiatives — realization & confidence

Set all confidence ±

Initiative

Realization

Confidence ±

Run-rate $/mo (low · exp · high)

Total run-rate savings (Dec-26)

Baseline forecast uses trailing-3-month per-unit run-rates (Mar–May 26) with MOH held fixed; figures tie to the Excel model. Realization scales an initiative's savings; confidence sets its ± band. The shaded chart region and ranges are the summed low/high cases.